Get ready for an exciting MLB season as we dive into the world of rookie projections! The future is now, and these young stars are ready to shine!
While the regular season is still a few weeks away, our curiosity about the upcoming season's rookies is burning bright. Projection systems offer a glimpse into what's to come, and we can't help but wonder: who will make their mark this year?
In this article, we've highlighted the top rookie projections, focusing on those with a projected FanGraphs WAR of at least 1.4. Why this specific number? Well, it's an intriguing threshold that leads to some fascinating insights. But first, let's meet the rookies who are set to make their presence felt in the big leagues.
1. Kazuma Okamoto, Blue Jays (3B): A Power-Hitting Sensation
One of Toronto's key offseason acquisitions, Okamoto brings an impressive resume from Nippon Professional Baseball. With six 30-homer seasons and a career slash line of .277/.361/.521, he's a force to be reckoned with. While the projections might not match his NPB numbers, a debut season with 22 dingers and an OPS of .769 would be incredible. Okamoto's projected offensive prowess, with a wRC+ of 112, would place him among the Blue Jays' top hitters, right behind the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer.
2. Trey Yesavage, Blue Jays (RHP): The Reigning AL Pennant Winner's Ace in the Making
Yes, the Blue Jays have the top two projected rookies! Yesavage, at just 22 years old, has already dominated on the biggest stages. After a remarkable year that saw him rise from Single-A to record-breaking postseason performances, the right-hander is poised for an even bigger impact. Steamer projects a K-filled season for Yesavage, with 162 strikeouts in 146 2/3 innings. His 9.9 K/9 rate ranks among the top 20 starters, and he's expected to maintain a solid ERA of 3.79 across 34 appearances, including 24 starts.
3. Chase DeLauter, Guardians (OF): The Playoff Veteran
DeLauter is a unique talent who has already experienced the playoffs without any regular-season action. With his potential to start in center or corner outfield, he's set to make a big impact for Cleveland. Despite injury setbacks limiting his Minor League games, Steamer is optimistic about his ability to stay healthy in 2026. DeLauter is projected to slash .252/.326/.408 with 14 homers in 118 games, showcasing his potential as a consistent contributor.
3. JJ Wetherholt, Cardinals (2B): The NL Rookie of the Year Favorite
With Brendan Donovan's trade, second base is wide open for Wetherholt, MLB's No. 5 prospect and a strong contender for the NL Rookie of the Year award. His impressive Minor League performance, with a career slash line of .304/.418/.487, has caught the eye of baseball executives. In the Majors, he's projected to maintain a solid .255/.341/.392 slash with 10 home runs in 105 games. Wetherholt's WAR of 2.1 puts him right behind Masyn Winn and Iván Herrera on the Cardinals' roster.
5. Nolan McLean, Mets (RHP): The Emerging Ace
McLean impressed during his 48-inning debut last season, and he's expected to be a key part of the Mets' rotation in 2026. With a projected ERA of 3.71 over 149 innings, he's set to be the team's second-best starter. His FIP of 3.92 ties him with Freddy Peralta for the rotation lead. While his K/9 rate might be closer to his Minor League output (9.7) than last year's small sample (10.7), McLean's presence for a full season could be a game-changer for the Mets.
5. Munetaka Murakami, White Sox (INF): The Home Run Threat
As MLB.com's David Adler noted, Murakami's 2026 projection is intriguing, especially his 30 projected home runs. With just 557 plate appearances, he's expected to be among the top home run hitters this year. His wRC+ of 118 leads the White Sox, but his high swing-and-miss rates in Japan are a concern. Steamer projects a K rate of 28.9%, one of the highest among hitters with at least 500 PAs.
7. Bubba Chandler, Pirates (RHP): The Elite Pitching Prospect
Chandler, the Pirates' latest pitching gem, is set to join forces with reigning NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes. Since his August call-up, he's struck out 31 batters while walking only four in 31 1/3 innings. With a fastball that touches triple digits and a high-whiff changeup, Chandler is poised for a strikeout-filled first full season. Steamer projects 146 K's over 160 1/3 innings, but he might also experience some control issues, as seen in his 53 walks in 100 Triple-A innings last year.
7. Logan Henderson, Brewers (RHP): The Unlucky Ace
Henderson's inclusion on this list is a bit unfortunate due to his right elbow inflammation last season. With a 1.78 ERA in 25 1/3 innings and five starts, he should have been a part of Milwaukee's playoff run. This year, he's projected to bounce back, tossing 145 2/3 innings in 41 appearances, including 23 starts, with a 4.17 ERA and 143 strikeouts.
7. Tatsuya Imai, Astros (RHP): The Free Agent Find
Imai, one of the top free agent pitchers this offseason, signed with the Astros after a stellar three-year run with NPB's Saitama Seibu Lions. With a 2.18 ERA and 495 strikeouts over 470 innings, he's a key addition to Houston's rotation. However, his rookie year in MLB might come with some growing pains, as Steamer projects a 4.37 ERA over 153 innings and less than one strikeout per inning.
10. Carter Jensen, Royals (C): The Kansas City Native
Jensen, a local hero and MLB's No. 2 catching prospect, made an impact in his first 20 big league games last year with nine extra-base hits and a .941 OPS. While Salvador Perez is still a force behind the plate, Jensen is expected to shine, whether catching or at designated hitter. With a projected WAR of 1.5, tied with Perez, Jensen is set to be the Royals' fifth-best position player. His stats include 10 home runs, 26 XBHs, and a wRC+ of 104.
10. Robby Snelling, Marlins (LHP): The Opportunity Knocks
With the Marlins' offseason trades, younger arms like Snelling have a chance to prove themselves. Snelling, Miami's Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2025, is projected to get an extended look in the rotation. He's expected to post a 4.04 ERA through 120 innings (21 starts), showcasing his potential as a reliable starter.
13. Konnor Griffin, Pirates (SS/OF): The Best Prospect in Baseball
We set the bar at 1.4 WAR for this list to make room for Griffin, the top prospect in baseball. Still a teenager, Griffin could make his Major League debut on Opening Day, joining an elite group of players who have achieved this feat while ranked as MLB Pipeline's No. 1 prospect. Steamer projects Griffin to play in 79 games, but his impact could be significant, with eight homers, 13 steals, and the fourth-best position-player WAR on the team.
13. Parker Messick, Guardians (LHP): The Five-Pitch Arsenal
Messick, with his impressive 2.72 ERA and 38:6 K:BB ratio in 39 2/3 innings last year, is set to compete for a rotation spot. Steamer believes he'll spend most of the season with Cleveland, projecting 23 starts and a 4.06 ERA across 129 innings. His five-pitch arsenal gives him an edge in the competition for a starting role.
Honorable Mentions:
- Sal Stewart, Reds (INF): 1.3 WAR
- Dylan Beavers, Orioles (OF): 1.1 WAR
- Hunter Barco, Pirates (LHP): 1.0 WAR
- Samuel Basallo, Orioles (C/1B): 1.0 WAR
- Justin Crawford, Phillies (OF): 1.0 WAR
These rookies are set to make their mark on the MLB stage. But here's where it gets controversial: Who do you think will exceed expectations? And who might struggle to live up to the hype? Share your thoughts in the comments, and let's discuss the future of these exciting young talents!
